Sabtu, 05 Juli 2008

As we get older, we are often tempted to play the "what-if" game as we reflect on our past. We ask questions like, What if I had gone to this college rather than the one my parents sent me to? Or, What if I had married my high school sweetheart? How would that have affected my life? As youve probably found out, playing what-if with your past is rarely productive.

The what-if game is the lifeblood of the technology industry, however--the driver of innovation and invention. In this case, we ask questions like, What if we could create a car that doesnt run on gas? How would that affect the worlds economy, or my pocketbook? Or, What if there were life on Mars? What would that mean to the universe? Admittedly, when we play here in Silicon Valley, we dont always get that grandiose. But nonetheless, we do play often.

The most recent game relates to the new hands-free calling law that went into effect in California this week. For the first time, 23 million licensed drivers will be compelled to use some type of hands-free communications device if they want to make calls or talk on their cell phones while driving. Some will use the wireless technology built into their cars audio systems; most will buy Bluetooth headsets to meet the requirements of the law. But with this many people being forced to migrate to the use of headsets, some of us are looking harder at what this technological shift could mean in the long run.

So whats the what-if here? It goes something like this: What role could a wireless headset play if it were tied to a smartphone that could access and control our personal digital stuff? And taken a step further, What if we had better voice technology that could be used on a smartphone and tied to a headset? What would that allow us to do?

To play this game, we need to make some assumptions. First, wireless networks will deliver ubiquitous access at speeds above 2.5 to 3 Mbps in the near future, allowing us access to our digital stuff anytime, and anyplace we happen to be. Second, smartphones will become more powerful at the processor level and much smarter at the OS level, and voice commands will become part of the interface. And we assume that the concept of data in the clouds will someday become a reality, letting us store our digital bits in ways that we can access from the phones in our pockets or purses.

To some extent, Microsofts Sync technology is a step in this direction, letting you access locally stored music and your cell phones address book. But if your digital stuff could be accessed and redirected with some form of command and control built into the voice interface, imagine what that could mean! And include in your dream the factor that data is always accessible wherever you are.

For example, with the right technology in place, you could talk to the smartphone in your pocket that interfaces with your data in the cloud, ask "Where is the closest Starbucks?", and find out where it is and how to get there from your current location. Although you can do that now on a GPS, there are times when you dont have a free hand to take the device out of your pocket, and a verbal solution would be better.

Or you could say into the headset, "Turn the air conditioning down at home to 70 degrees at 5:15, so that the house is cool by the time I get there at 5:30." Or send a text message to your wife that youll be home at 7 oclock instead of 6 due to heavy traffic--but send it via dictation, not with your thumbs. Or tell your DVR to record "The Big Bang Theory" and have it instantly schedule the recording. In fact, now that millions of Californians will be using Bluetooth headsets, I wouldnt be surprised if a lot of folks around here start yelling at their wireless providers, demanding capabilities like these today.

Im clearly enamored of this mobile command-and-control concept. I see a whole new way in which the humble cell phone of today could become the most powerful personal digital tool in the future. And done right, it could become the gateway for our digital lifestyles. Of course, technology has to evolve dramatically: voice commands arent yet fully integrated with our devices, and whole-home automation tied to the cloud still needs to be developed. But folks are playing the what-if game around this concept--suggesting that well have this type of solution available to us sooner than you might think.

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